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America may be reopen , but the newfangled coronavirus has n’t run low away — indeed , many U.S. states have look disturbing rises in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks . But is there a point at which these resurrect should activate the return ofshutdownsand stay - at - nursing home fiat ? And how would United States Department of State determine this " tipping full stop ? "
This retiring calendar week , more than 20 states see increases in their seven - day norm of day-to-day new COVID-19 cases , according toThe Washington Post . For good example , Alabama reported a 92 % increase in this metric function compared with the calendar week before , follow by Oregon with an 84 % gain , the Post reported .
Arizona has also become a young COVID-19 hotspot , with its seven - day average of casual COVID-19 cases nearly tripling compared with two weeks ago , according to NPR . On Tuesday ( June 16 ) , Arizona report 2,392 Modern coronavirus cases , a new all - time high , up from the late high of 1,654 cases in a individual day on June 12 , fit in toKTAR News . Hospitalizations there are also rising — the state reported more than 1,400 COVID-19 current hospitalization on Friday ( June 12 ) , up from 755 a month earlier , according toThe New York Times .
The interrogative of whether to reinstitute shutdown is a complex one , said Dr. Purnima Madhivanan , an infectious disease epidemiologist and associate prof at The University of Arizona in Tucson . It ’s " fail to be very , very linguistic context - driven , " Madhivanan said .
For example , one key metric functionary have used to guide closure and reopening is whether hospital are likely to run out of quad or equipment . But the demand for hospital beds , wellness forethought staff and equipment likeventilators"is a hyper - local phenomenon , " Madhivanan tell Live Science . So the state ’s overall infirmary content wo n’t help oneself if there are n’t enough bed in areas where hospitalizations are rising .
Dr. Jonathan Fielding , professor of wellness insurance policy and management at UCLA and former director of public health for Los Angeles County , agreed . " I do n’t conceive you ’re going to see any interior consensus [ on when to shut down again ] because the situations are very different from place to place , " Fielding said .
Some of the rise in coronavirus cases is a result ofincreased testing , which may identify asymptomatic and mild cases that would have otherwise gone undetected . But several DoS , include Arizona , are also come across increases in stark COVID-19 case that require hospitalization , which is considered a better indicator of community spreading , because these cases are surd to overleap .
" We are view uptick with hospitalizations [ in Arizona ] , and that tells us the story , " regardless of whether there is increase testing in the residential area or not , Madhivanan said .
Hospital capacity in Arizona has reached 83 % , and beds are peculiarly limited in the intemperately - remove county of Maricopa , where Phoenix is located . The Phoenix - based hospital arrangement Banner Health recently reported that intensive - care building block at its Maricopa County hospitals have reached full capacity , according tolocal news outlet KJZZ .
" Should we close down Phoenix ? I would say yes , immediately , " Madhivanan say . But this would n’t needfully enforce to other areas of the state of matter .
Adding to the complexity of the issue is that shutdowns and stay - at - nursing home orders need to number from potentially reluctant country and local governments .
At a press conference on Thursday ( June 11 ) , Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey say that another abide - at - home order is " not under discourse , " accord to NPR . ( Ducey has also cut an executive society that prevents local governments from going further than the state in regard to shut out down club . ) However , Oregon Gov. Kate Brown put a pause on reopen , after the state report what was at the clock time its highest number of COVID-19 typeface in a undivided daylight on Thursday ( June 11 ) . Officials in Houston are also consider issue another detain - in - place rules of order , although the city may be prohibited from having more nonindulgent rules than the state , harmonize to Vox .
What ’s more , officials may find it difficult to restore rigorous rule , like strict detain - at - home orders , once they ’ve been lift . Such rules of order may be politically unpopular , and people may be less probable to comply them .
" It ’s toilsome to put the djinn back in the nursing bottle , " Fielding enunciate . " I suppose it ’s difficult to pass , to put restrictions in place that do n’t have public funding , " once you ’ve already release them the first time , he said .
Rather than seeing the homecoming of full - blown shutdowns , officials may make adjustment to put back some , but not all , of the restrictions that were in lieu before , or to well implement societal - distancing rules . For model , official might put limit on the telephone number of mass that can be inside parks ( rather than shutting parks down ) , or charge people with misdemeanors for notwearing a masque , Fielding said .
To attain a balance between the economy and people ’s wellness , " we have to start look at this , not as [ a ] one - size - fit - all approach , " Madhivanan said . " We have to look at our localepidemiology " and do more in areas that need it , she enounce .
In Phoenix , action mechanism is overdue , she said . " If we do n’t do something right away , I think we ’re asking for trouble . "
Originally published onLive Science .
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