It ’s an inescapable reality that human and non - human cases of avian influenza H5N1 , or “ bird flu ” , have been on the up in the US . With every declaration of a Modern outbreak often comes fresh concern about the potential danger it dumbfound to humans . But how concerned do we need to be ?
Will it start spreading between humans?
According to theCenters for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC ) , there have been 67 sustain human case of H5N1 bird flu in the US since 2024 . In 64 of those cases , contagion has been linked to creature vulnerability , principally through dairy farm cattle herds and poultry farms .
There are , however , three slip where the source of picture “ was not able to be identified ” . Perhaps unsurprisingly , this might conduct the great unwashed to speculate that in the US , the virus has already developed the electrical capacity to impart between humans .
However , there ’s currentlyno evidenceto suggest that ’s the causa . Even on a worldwide scale leaf , the CDC says that even “ limited , non - free burning human - to - human transmission has not been reported worldwide since 2007 . ”
That ’s not to say there is n’t a possibility of the situation changing . IFLScience askedDr Robert Murphy , executive theatre director of the Robert J. Havey Institute for Global Health at Northwestern University , how potential it is that the US is going to see the spread of avian influenza between human being .
“ Very likely , ” order Murphy . “ It ’s fundamentally one or two variation away . ”
Astudypublished in December last year concluded the same ; it found that just a exclusive amino group acid modification in hemagglutinin , a viral protein that helps it attach to host cells , made it easier to infect human cells .
If it materialise like next hebdomad , we ’ll be in a lot of trouble , I think
Lessons from the past
With COVID-19 still fresh in the public thinker , it ’s perhaps inevitable that masses are going to make comparisons with the recent pandemic . Are we in a good position in terms of knowledge when it comes to doll flu than when SARS - CoV-2 first set about to spread ? If we see infection between humans , is it going to pip us as heavy ?
There ’s little doubt that this too is a serious situation ; the spread of the computer virus amongst poultry has led to the end ofover 20 million chickensin the US , either having been killed by the computer virus or pluck because of it , and it ’s had a important impact on egg prices . The computer virus has been identified inwild birdsin 52 jurisdiction across the US , while human cases have been confirm in 10 land and likely in another two . Infection with bird flu haskilledone person in the country .
We ’re also slap bang in the centre of respiratory virus season , which is n’t ideal if H5N1 learn the mutations need for human - to - human transmission in the come week . “ If it happen like next workweek , we ’ll be in a lot of trouble , I think , because it ’ll spread very quickly , ” said Murphy . On the other hand , this stand for that as “ influenza season snuff it down , it will also most belike go down . ”
The other good news is that , allot to Murphy , important lessons have been learned from COVID-19 .
“ People are looking at influenza very closely , the [ vaccine ] backlog , the treatment , everything , ” suppose Murphy .
The systems are do up thanks to COVID , so we ’re in a very unlike spot with avian flu
The existing stockpile is “ really pitch for dairy farmers and domestic fowl workers ” rather than the general population , Murphy explained , but movement have been made . For one , under the outgoing Biden administration , the US Department of Health and Human Services ( HHS ) awarded$590 millionto Moderna , the fellowship behind one of the COVID-19 vaccinum , to hurry up the development of mRNA vaccines against potentially pandemic - causing flu virus , includingH5N1 .
Whether this drive will continue under the current giving medication is yet to be seen , but “ the systems are set up thanks to COVID , ” said Murphy , “ so we ’re in a very unlike office with avian influenza . ”
That being say , there ’s still work to be done – more accessible examination for bird flu would be more than helpful in the scenario where the virus spreads more widely in humankind . “ We have over the counter flu tests . Why ca n’t we have an over the counter bird flu test ? ” Murphy posed . “ It ’s entirely potential . ”
Questions remain
There is one component to the spread of H5N1 in the US that is puzzling . fit in to theWorld Health Organization(WHO ) , there have been 954 sustain case of H5N1 bird flu worldwide between 2003 and the goal of 2024 . Of those , 464 have died – that ’s just under a 50 percent mortality rate rate . Given this statistic , it ’s perhaps no admiration that people are so upset about the wider spread of the virus .
However , the US has thrown us for a loop ; it ’s had 67 confirmed human cases since 2024 and only one of those has been fatal . The person who died had implicit in precondition that would ’ve put them at a higher risk of dying from grippe in general . “ So there ’s something weird , something that we do n’t sympathise about what ’s happening [ with the computer virus ] now , ” Murphy explained .
We also have to support the public health people that are play on the vaccines , good treatment and good surveillance
“ Maybe there is some partial granting immunity to all the other flus and vaccinum immunity people have , ” he suggest . “ So , you know , it could be considerably dampen , and maybe that ’s what ’s sound on . ”
Do we need to be worried?
At present , the CDC says that the risk of snort influenza infection to the ecumenical public stay downhearted . Murphy echoed this : “ You do n’t really have to worry today unless you have a chicken farm or arouse cattle . ”
For those individuals , Murphy stressed the grandness of being argus-eyed and that testing is primal . The CDC also recommend that people avoid direct contact with barbaric birdie , and report one that seem pale or dead , alternatively of seek to touch them .
In light of thechangescurrently being made to public wellness bodies , it ’s also worth focusing our attention on those need in the enquiry behind bird flu . “ We also have to suffer the public health masses that are play on the vaccines , better handling and better surveillance , ” suppose Murphy . “ All that is doable . ”
The capacity of this clause is not intended to be a substitute for professional aesculapian advice , diagnosing , or treatment . Always seek the advice of qualified health providers with questions you may have regarding aesculapian precondition .
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